Who’s Leading and Who’s Lagging?

By Andreas Sieber, Associate Director of Policy and Campaigns at 350.org. Connect with Andreas on LinkedIn.
Monday, February 10 marks the initial submission time for countries to deliver their updated national climate plans (NDCs), including fresh 2035 emissions reduction targets. And, surprise—most will be late. But that’s not the scandal. The real question is whether governments will step up with ambitious targets or stumble into irrelevance in the global clean energy race.
These first timelines have not been known for their punctuality. In the last NDC cycle, most countries missed the initial submission time and played catch-up until COP26. This time is no different. The UK, Brazil, the US, Switzerland, New Zealand, the UAE, and Uruguay have submitted full plans—covering just 16% of global emissions. Others, including Japan, the EU, China, Australia, Ecuador, and Chile, are still in consultation.
But let’s be clear: it’s better to get it right than to rush a flimsy plan out the door. These national climate plans will dictate economic fortunes.
Strong NDCs are not just about emissions; they’re about jobs, clean air and water and the trillion-dollar clean tech economy that’s taking off.
Governments should ensure their plans are finalized well before the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Ambition Summit in September 2025, where leaders will be called to show their cards ahead of COP30.
Here is 10 tests if countries climate plans are good enough to make or break 1.5C.
A Decade of Transformation—and What’s Next
Since the first round of climate plans in 2015, we’ve seen a revolution. Renewables now dominate new power capacity. Battery costs have nosedived by 90%. The clean energy market is poised to exceed $2 trillion in the next decade. Strong national climate plans are no longer an environmental obligation; they are economic strategy documents.
Countries that lag risk falling behind—missing out on investments, losing jobs, and watching others seize the competitive advantage. Clear climate plans that detail the need for mitigation, adaptation and the mechanisms to fund these, provide clear opportunities for climate finance. Disappointing climate finance discussions at COP29 are sure to diminish developing country ambition. But clear plans for climate action have the opportunity to place people at the centre of a sustainable transition that can include accessible, clean energy as well as job and livelihood opportunities.

At COP29 in Azerbaijan, 350.org and partner organizations hosted an action demanding more ambition on countries’ climate plans. Photo credit: Jason del Rosario
Who’s Stepping Up—and Who’s Slacking Off
Country | Target | 350’s take |
Andorra | 63% net reduction by 2035 compared to 2005 | An improvement, to be sure—but when a country’s fair share demands real ambition, celebrating incremental progress feels rather like praising a jogger for taking a few steps forward. |
Brazil | 59–67% below 2005 | Brazil set a climate target so broad it could double as a hammock—plenty of room to swing between ambition and inaction. The upper limit looks great on paper, but funny how it doesn’t seem to clash with their fossil fuel expansion binge. More work to be done. |
Canada | 45-50% below 2005 levels (under consultation) | Canada’s climate target takes a timid step forward—meanwhile, its fossil fuel expansion sprints ahead. |
Japan | 60 % below 2013 level (under consultation) | Japan’s climate target is underwhelming, but the real masterpiece is the claim that ammonia-coal plants are a solution—because nothing says ‘climate leadership’ like dressing up pollution in a greener costume and hoping no one notices. |
New Zealand | 51–55% below “gross” 2005 levels | New Zealand’s new climate target is the policy equivalent of adding a salad to a fast-food order and calling it a health kick. Bumping the goal from 50% to a ‘bold’ 51-55% sounds nice—until you realize that, with creative accounting, actual cuts could be as little as 1%. Pathetic seems too friendly as a judgement. |
Switzerland | 65 % below 1990 levels | Switzerland’s new climate target shows some progress, with sectoral targets and actual emission cuts—too bad the fine print still relies on outsourcing responsibility through junk carbon credits. |
UAE | 47% below 2019 levels | The UAE has been bragging about a 1.5-aligned climate target, but its fossil fuel expansion and reliance on offsetting show it’s more about image than action. |
UK | 81 % below 1990 levels | The UK’s climate target is actually impressive—easily the most ambitious from a wealthy nation. Kudos for phasing out coal and setting strong sectoral targets! But there’s a slight plot twist: aviation emissions are conveniently left out, just as Heathrow gets a third runway. |
US | 61-66% below 2005 levels (to be withdrawn) | The US target is still far behind the UK’s 81% reduction. And Trump’s departure from the Paris Agreement and his rollback of key policies is a spectacularly misguided move. Still, despite the federal setbacks, states are stepping up, Trump will slow – not stop – the transition. |
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